Boxship overcapacity represents a serious challenge for 2012, says Alphaliner
Delivery of new mega-boxships will probably exacerbate the present over-capacity situation in this market
According to liner shipping information provider Alphaliner, net growth of the cellular containership fleet is expected to reach 1.28 million TEU in 2012, an increase of 8.3%; with another 1.47 million TEU planned for delivery.
Allowing for scrapping (about 120,000TEU forecast) and delivery slippage (about 80,000TEU), the fleet will growth by another 1.39million TEU by the end of 2012, which, with a forecast downturn in demand growth (6.5% against 7.7% in 2011), will lead to considerable over-capacity, representing a serious challenge for the industry..
Alphaliner believes that the orderbook bias toward large ships will exacerbate the oversupply afflicting the main East-West trades. Of the expected deliveries, 49% are concentrated in ships of above 10,000TEU, which will create a serious glut of tonnage on the Far East-Europe routes causing a knock-on effect to other routes.
Alphaliner says that the idle containership fleet stood at 246 ships, or 595,000TEU,at the start of 2012, Compared to the same period last year when the idle fleet stood at 322,000TEU, carriers seem to have removed more capacity in 2011 due to weak demand in the US and Europe.
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